German unemployment falls less than usual in October and is 44,000 higher than a year ago

Germany's usual autumn labour market pick-up has been weak this year. In October 2026, 2,955,000 people were registered as unemployed, 40,000 fewer than in September, the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit, BA) said in Nuremberg on 30 October. Unemployment normally falls in October; because the drop was small this time, seasonal adjustment, which removes the regular swings of the year, turns it into a rise of 4,000. Unemployment was 44,000 higher than in October 2025. The rate fell by 0.1 points on September to 6.3%, 0.1 points above a year earlier.

Andrea Nahles, chair of the agency's executive board, said that economic conditions were still not good enough for the labour market to improve.

The rise is concentrated in unemployment insurance

The increase comes from the unemployed people looked after by an employment agency (the SGB III system, unemployment insurance). Their number stood at 1,163,000 in October, 7.4% higher than a year earlier. The BA describes this system as the one closest to the economic cycle. In basic income support for jobseekers (SGB II), which is run by the job centres, 1,791,000 people were unemployed, 2.0% fewer than in October 2025.

According to the BA's monthly report, employees are now about as likely to become unemployed as they were before the coronavirus pandemic; that risk has been rising for some time, but it remains relatively low by long-term standards. Conversely, the chances of moving from unemployment into a job are historically poor. Among young people aged 15 to under 25, unemployment was 5.9% higher than a year earlier. Underemployment, which also counts people in labour market programmes and those briefly unable to work through illness, stood at 3,592,000: down 9,000 after seasonal adjustment, but 28,000 higher than a year earlier.

Bavaria has the lowest rate, Saxony the steepest rise

The differences between the states are large. Bavaria had the lowest unemployment rate in October, at 4.0%, and Bremen the highest, at 11.0%. Compared with a year earlier, however, Bremen's rate fell the most, by 0.4 points, while Saxony's rose the most, by 0.3 points. In 13 of the 16 states more people were unemployed than a year earlier; in Thuringia the increase was only 10. In percentage terms, the number rose most in Saxony (up 3.2%) and Bavaria (up 2.8%). Bremen, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saarland counted fewer unemployed people than in October 2025.

Fewer people in work, more vacancies registered

Employment is shrinking too. About 45.60 million people living in Germany were in work in September 2026, on provisional calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis): 4,000 fewer than in August after seasonal adjustment, and 211,000 fewer (down 0.5%) than in September 2025. Destatis sees this as the continuation of a downward trend visible in the year-on-year comparison since January 2025. Employees paying social insurance contributions numbered 34.87 million in August, on the BA's projection, 45,000 fewer than a year earlier.

In October, 654,000 vacancies were registered with the BA, 31,000 more than a year earlier. Its job index, BA-X, which covers newly registered vacancies as well as the stock, fell by one point to 102. Between 1 and 26 October, employers notified short-time work for economic reasons for 22,000 people. On provisional figures, the allowance was actually paid for 98,000 employees in August, 20,000 fewer than in July and about 66,000 fewer than a year earlier. Our explainer sets out how Kurzarbeit works and what changes in 2027.

Still low by European standards

Under the concept of the International Labour Organization (ILO), which allows international comparisons, 1.79 million people in Germany were unemployed in September, a rate of 4.1%. That is lower than registered unemployment, partly because the definitions differ: under the German Social Code, someone working fewer than 15 hours a week can count as unemployed, whereas under the ILO concept one hour of work ends unemployment. Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, put the seasonally adjusted rate in September at 6.5% in the euro area and 6.2% in the EU; for Germany it gave 4.1%.

More unemployment benefit, less basic income support

In October, 1,065,000 people received unemployment benefit (Arbeitslosengeld), on the BA's projection, 88,000 more than a year earlier. Basic income support for jobseekers, whose payment was called Bürgergeld until 30 June 2026 and has been called Grundsicherungsgeld since, counted 3,659,000 recipients able to work, 172,000 fewer than in October 2025. That is 6.8% of people of working age in Germany.

The BA does not expect a turnaround for now: its leading indicators suggest that the recent course will probably continue over the coming months, its monthly report says. The labour market barometer of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), which runs from 90 (very poor outlook) to 110 (very good outlook), rose by 0.3 points in October to 100.1, just above the neutral mark of 100.